What are common mistakes done when using TopTennisTips? We’ve put together 3 of the most fatal ones (most of this applies to similar services in general).
1 No backtest
The biggest mistake is not backtesting at all. Results will quickly show that without backtesting, a betting strategy is almost certain to make you lose money. It’s always a good idea to set odds, probability and bet value ranges to see how it would have done in the past. Past performance is an indicator of future success only, but without it, chances are low.
2 Selectively using our tennis predictions
By nature, bettors tend to like high odds. Odds like 1.75 or 2.0 are good, high, exciting and promise good wins. Odds of 1.3 are boring and often not even noticed. Really? Let’s see what this kind of thinking leads to.
Let’s start with a strategy which you expect to be profitable and steady. For a simple example, let’s take a look at the default settings on www.toptennistips.com/backtest/:
(This chart shows a backtest with odds>=1.1 and probability>=78%.)
You then get the tips and start betting… Tips with different odds are presented… 1.44, 1.81, 1.33, 1.51, 1.75, 1.15, 1.65, etc. But, and here comes the bad move, you decide to only play the bigger ones, like odds above 1.8. Let’s see what this leads to:
(This chart shows a backtest with odds>=1.8 and probability>=78%.)
Oh! Ah! The once good strategy is gone, it’s losing or break even only…
You picked the big odds only. Effectively, you changed your strategy, which almost always leads to less profit than planned.
(Note: if you want to play high odds only, go to the Backtest page, set high odds and see how strategies perform.)
3 Using the wrong bet type
Okay, you’re using the backtest to pick a strategy. You also stick to the strategy and select all matches predicted. There is still one big mistake you can do. Ever had a situation where betting on the winner showed odds like 1.2, while betting on the same player to win in straight sets was 1.7? The outcome will be very different. TopTennisTips.com currently only predicts match winners for tennis matches but not correct score (although we’re working on predicting correct score too). It’s highly important to stick to that and only bet on the winner of the match. Going for any other bet type means you leave your strategy.
What can you learn from this?
- Take time, experiment and backtest your strategy
- Stick to the strategy
- Bet on what’s predicted: the match winner
At TopTennisTips.com you are provided a Backtest Tool which allows you to do exactly this: you can go and experiment with various odds, probability, bet value and bankroll settings. Once you identified a good strategy (yes, there can be multiple good ones), stick to it.